1. ## The Mooncake Formula

From roughly 9,000 trees of rarity 22-98 (perhaps 45 averagely), I obtained:

 Balance Mooncakes Peace Mooncakes Harmony Mooncakes Longevity Mooncakes Prosperity Mooncakes Total ----- 30 796 808 833 812 3279

From this I can agree that the Mooncake drop rate is equal to the rarity. Rarity 87 chandeliers give an 87% chance of dropping a Mooncake, for instance. This may not be exactly right, but it is very close to correct—the true formula can only be confirmed by Seth or Hamumu.

I can also develop a ratio of what Mooncake a tree could drop. The experimental ratio of Balance to other Mooncake is 1:107. It can be assumed that the real ratio is 1:100. All Mooncakes, besides Balance have an equal drop rate. This means the ratio of Balance to Peace, to Harmony, to Longevity, to Prosperity is 1:25:25:25:25.

Therefore: Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees * Number of trees / 10000

I also used a harvester and got around 70 Harvester of Souls Masks. I sold these approximately 6 WLs each for an awesome profit. These masks are a rare drop when using harvester.

I hope this information helps!

Simple Summary

•The percentage chance of a Mooncake is equal to the tree's rarity.
•There is a 1 in 100 chance of a Mooncake being Balance.
•Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees * Number of trees / 10000

2. Originally Posted by ID: BEASTLY
From roughly 10,000 trees of rarity 22-98 (perhaps 45 averagely), I obtained:

30 Balance
796 Peace
808 Harmony
833 Longevity
812 Prosperity
3279 Total

From this I can agree that the Mooncake drop rate is equal to the rarity. Rarity 87 chandeliers give an 87% chance of dropping a Mooncake, for instance. This may not be exactly right, but it is very close to correct—the true formula can only be confirmed by Seth or Hamumu.

I can also develop a ratio of what Mooncake a tree could drop. The experimental ratio of Balance to other Mooncake is 1:107. It can be assumed that the real ratio is 1:100. All Mooncakes, besides Balance have an equal drop rate. This means the ratio of Balance to Peace, to Harmony, to Longevity, to Prosperity is 1:25:25:25:25.

Therefore: Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees * Number of trees / 10000

I also used a harvester and got around 70 Harvester of Souls Masks. I sold these approximately 6 WLs each for an awesome profit. These masks are a rare drop when using harvester.

I hope this information helps!

Simple Summary

•The percentage chance of a Mooncake is equal to the tree's rarity.
•There is a 1 in 100 chance of a Mooncake being Balance.
•Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees * Number of trees / 10000
Wow!Can you give me a mask?

5. Dang, I won't get any Balance Mooncakes at all...

6. Originally Posted by Sky123456789
Wow!Can you give me a mask?
Sorry, all sold.

Originally Posted by Indicative
An honour!

Originally Posted by DynPlaysGT
Dang, I won't get any Balance Mooncakes at all...
Yeah, a shame... They are rarer than people think.

7. Nice one! btw u get the mask from normal harvester or harvester of sorrow?

8. Is this easier to read?

Types of mooncakes:

Prosperity
Longevity
Peace
Harmony
Balance

How to get mooncakes?
Mooncakes are dropped by trees when you harvest it during the harvest fest. Growtopia takes the rarity of the tree you harvest and that is the chance the tree might drop a mooncake. For example, a tree is rarity 1. This makes it 1% that it can drop a mooncake, which also means it drops 1 mooncake per 100 trees.

What is a Songypeon?

Songypeons are rare mooncakes that can be made by combining 6Balance mooncakes , 4 Longevity mooncakes and 4 Prosperity mooncakes. This makes the Songypeon quite rare.

Cool, I want to make a Songypeon, but I can’t seem to get a balance mooncake! Why?

Based on observation (By Beastly), the ratio of a Balance mooncake dropping from tree to any other mooncakes dropping from the same type of tree is 1:107, which can be rounded off to 1:100. This makes the Balance mooncake the rarest mooncake. Therefore, a ratio of Balance to Peace, to Harmony, to Longevity, to Prosperity is 1:25:25:25:25. A word equation is derived from this.

Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees x Number of trees / 10000
This is yet to be confirmed by Seth and Hamumu.

Summary:

•The percentage chance of a Mooncake is equal to the tree's rarity.
•There is a 1 in 100 chance of a Mooncake being Balance.
•Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees * Number of trees / 10000

9. Originally Posted by Bengoh10jw

Types of mooncakes:

Prosperity
Longevity
Peace
Harmony
Balance

How to get mooncakes?
Mooncakes are dropped by trees when you harvest it during the harvest fest. Growtopia takes the rarity of the tree you harvest and that is the chance the tree might drop a mooncake. For example, a tree is rarity 1. This makes it 1% that it can drop a mooncake, which also means it drops 1 mooncake per 100 trees.

What is a Songypeon?

Songypeons are rare mooncakes that can be made by combining 6Balance mooncakes , 4 Longevity mooncakes and 4 Prosperity mooncakes. This makes the Songypeon quite rare.

Cool, I want to make a Songypeon, but I can’t seem to get a balance mooncake! Why?

Based on observation (By Beastly), the ratio of a Balance mooncake dropping from tree to any other mooncakes dropping from the same type of tree is 1:107, which can be rounded off to 1:100. This makes the Balance mooncake the rarest mooncake. Therefore, a ratio of Balance to Peace, to Harmony, to Longevity, to Prosperity is 1:25:25:25:25. A word equation is derived from this.

Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees x Number of trees / 10000
This is yet to be confirmed by Seth and Hamumu.

Summary:

•The percentage chance of a Mooncake is equal to the tree's rarity.
•There is a 1 in 100 chance of a Mooncake being Balance.
•Number of Balance Mooncakes = Rarity of trees * Number of trees / 10000

I like mine, but this may be helpful for other people.

Originally Posted by Lom1s
Nice one! btw u get the mask from normal harvester or harvester of sorrow?
I used sorrows, but I think either works—not confirmed.

10. Wow.. That's some serious math. Well played

11. Originally Posted by ID: BEASTLY
From roughly 9,000 trees of rarity 22-98 (perhaps 45 averagely), I obtained:
 Balance Mooncakes Peace Mooncakes Harmony Mooncakes Longevity Mooncakes Prosperity Mooncakes Total: 30 796 808 833 812 3279
Good enough?

12. I only got 8 balance from harvesting 2,200 trees of HTB, which is rarity 69. Following your formula, I should have gotten 15. Guess I ain't lucky enough.

13. Originally Posted by Sky123456789
From roughly 9,000 trees of rarity 22-98 (perhaps 45 averagely), I obtained:
 Balance Mooncakes Peace Mooncakes Harmony Mooncakes Longevity Mooncakes Prosperity Mooncakes Total: 30 796 808 833 812 3279
Good enough?
Thank you!

- - - Updated - - -

Originally Posted by Pretty
I only got 8 balance from harvesting 2,200 trees of HTB, which is rarity 69. Following your formula, I should have gotten 15. Guess I ain't lucky enough.
Yeah, luck is a huge part of it. Another person posted that they got about twice what the forumla says. My formula is definitely close but it might not be 100% accurate. It just made sense that it would be 1 in 100 since 100 is very rounded. Perhaps it's a 1 in 120 chance of balance or something. Anyway, the forumla is still a great estimation.

14. Originally Posted by ID: BEASTLY
Thank you!

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, luck is a huge part of it. Another person posted that they got about twice what the forumla says. My formula is definitely close but it might not be 100% accurate. It just made sense that it would be 1 in 100 since 100 is very rounded. Perhaps it's a 1 in 120 chance of balance or something. Anyway, the forumla is still a great estimation.
Yeah, it's just an estimate anyway. In my case it's about a balance per 275 trees or so. I'm cool with the masks, though.

15. So to everyone who denied my theory (in my guide, link in spoiler in my siggy), SCREW YOU!

16. ---BUMP---

17. Originally Posted by ID: BEASTLY
---BUMP---
And again. >.<

18. --B--
--U--
--M--
--P--

19. I love it when people use math for games.
/me claps

20. Originally Posted by ID: BEASTLY
Thank you!

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, luck is a huge part of it. Another person posted that they got about twice what the forumla says. My formula is definitely close but it might not be 100% accurate. It just made sense that it would be 1 in 100 since 100 is very rounded. Perhaps it's a 1 in 120 chance of balance or something. Anyway, the forumla is still a great estimation.
Only rng perhaps ? Btw i got a balance from 20 trees sugarcane , srsly. So back to lucky part

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